This figure shows the growing degree accumulation for historical and future climate conditions. Use the panel on the side to change the planting dates. The timing of emergence and maturity based on phenology assumptions by crop is also displayed. Use the panel on the side to change the crop
With warming going into the future, there is accelerated growing degree day accumulation and earlier crop maturity. This can lead to potential reduction in yields, which could be mitigated by switching to slower growing crop varieties. Earlier maturity might also result in an additional cutting of hay crops, or faculitate a double cropping system, if the growing season is long enough.
Long-Term Growing Degree Day Trend
In this tab, you can visualize the changes expected to daily minimum temperatures (T-min), daily maximum temperatures (T-max), and daily average temperatures (T-gvg) into the future. You can also visualize expected changes to heat and frost risks.
In the Pacific Northwest region, we expect temperatures to increase going into the future and this signal is robust across all climate model projections. This warming results in a longer available growing season. Even though a longer growing season is available, the actual time-to-maturity for crops is expected to be shorted due to accelerated growing degree day (GDD) accumulation (see GDD tab). This can have a negative impact on crop yields, but can be adapted to, by shifting to crop varieties that have longer times to maturity, or where possible, by shifting to double cropping systems.
Expected changes to T-min and growing season length
Expected changes to T-avg
Expected changes to T-max
Expected changes to heat risk
This figure shows the number of days in each month, temperatures higher than a threshold are expected. Use the option on the side panel to change the thresholds and replot the figure.
Expected changes to frost risk
This figure shows the number of days in each month, a frost event is expected.
In this tab, you can visualize the changes expected to total precipitation, rain, and snow levels, going into the future. Total precipitaion is split into rain and snow using the Pipes and Quick linear split method. This method had limitations, but is an approximation used in several hydrology models. You can also visualize the frequency of daily precipitation events exceeding a user specified threshold.
In the Pacific Northwest region, we generally expect a warming related shift in precipitation from snow to rain (decreases in snow levels and increases in rain levels). This signal is robust across multiple climate model projections. Total prepicipation is generally expected to stay about the same except perhaps certain months in early spring or winter. There is also variability among climate models in this aspect.
Expected changed to snow levels
Expected changed to rain levels
Expected changes to total precipitation levels
Expected changes to daily precipitation event frequencies
This figure shows the number of days in each month that that daily precipitation exceed a certain threshold. Use the option on the side panel to change the thresholds and replot the figure.
The maps below show the similarity between the county containing the selected location and all other counties in the Western United States. Similarity is between soil and 30-year averages of projected climate in the selected county and soil and historical climate from 1979-2015 of counties in the Western United States.
County Climate Analogues
The selected county is outlined in green. The three counties with historical soil and climate most similar to the future climate of the selected county are highlighted in orange, with more intense orange indicating a closer match.